More than one million people in the UK are currently living with glaucoma, almost 50% higher than previous estimates, according to new modelling published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology.
The findings have significant implications for glaucoma service capacity, monitoring demand and long-term workforce planning.
They will also likely be viewed with interest in other countries, including Australia.
Led by Professor Paul Foster, consultant ophthalmologist at Moorfields Eye Hospital and researcher at the UCL Institute of Ophthalmology, the study estimates that around 1.02 million people aged 40 and over have glaucoma – many of them undiagnosed. Prevalence is projected to rise to 1.6 million by 2060, driven by population ageing and demographic change.
Glaucoma remains a leading cause of irreversible vision loss, with disease progression often occurring before patients become symptomatic. The authors warn that delayed diagnosis is contributing to avoidable visual impairment and increasing downstream costs to the health system.
“Late diagnosis comes with a higher risk of sight loss and higher costs of care,” Dr Foster said. “More than 40% of glaucoma patients in the UK experience vision loss that could have been prevented with earlier diagnosis and treatment, including topical therapy and surgery.”
Using updated census data and published prevalence estimates, the researchers recalculated national disease burden, finding that a substantial proportion of glaucoma cases remain undetected. The study reinforces concerns about late presentation, which is associated with higher treatment intensity, reduced therapeutic options and poorer long-term outcomes.
Prevalence increases steeply with age, rising from approximately 0.25% in adults aged 40–44 to more than 11% in those aged 85 and over. Higher prevalence was also observed among people of African descent, underscoring the need for targeted case-finding strategies.
The projected increase to 1.6 million cases by 2060 represents a 60% rise, significantly exceeding the expected growth of the over-40 population. The authors note that this trajectory will place sustained pressure on:
- glaucoma outpatient clinics
- long-term monitoring and follow-up capacity
- surgical and laser services
- shared-care models involving community optometry
Without changes to detection and management pathways, the study suggests current service models may struggle to accommodate future demand.
The findings are being used to support calls for expanded eye health services, improved surveillance strategies and greater emphasis on early case detection.
The study was published online in the British Journal of Ophthalmology on 21 January 2026.
